Agenda-setting intelligence, analysis and advice for the global fashion community.
We’re all economics nerds in a post-Liberation Day world, so in a sense, this week’s big reveal will be the Conference Board’s monthly gauge of US consumer confidence, due out Tuesday. That survey will only tell us something about whether people are shopping, however. To find out what they’ll be buying, we have Nike and Dior.
Nike’s Multifaceted Turnaround
What’s Happening: Nike reports fourth-quarter and full-year results on June 26. Analysts have an average forecast for sales to drop 15 percent for the quarter and 11 percent for the year, along with a sharp contraction in profits.
Eye on the Horizon: Most have written off Nike’s fiscal 2025, and will be instead watching for whether the sportswear giant releases guidance for the coming year, along with CEO Elliott Hill’s outlook on the earnings call Thursday afternoon.
FOMO: Nike watchers assume it’s only a matter of time before the brand enters a new golden age, or at least halts its decline. Exactly when that will happen is the billion-dollar question; in a research note, UBS said Nike’s stock may even be priced artificially high because investors worry they’ll mistime the rebound (remarkable, given shares are trading close to an eight-year low). That dynamic provides Nike leadership a bit of breathing room to implement their plans, though it also increases the consequences if they push out their turnaround timeline.
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About Those Plans…: Nike learned the hard way why you don’t put all your eggs in one basket, after its retro sneaker boom went bust. Along with marking down holdover Dunks, Nike is seeding numerous potential comeback efforts, including its (yes, retro) Vomero running shoe, the soccer cleat-inspired Cryoshots and reviving women’s basketball sneakers with a signature shoe from the WNBA’s A’ja Wilson. And of course there’s NikeSkims, the new lifestyle sub-brand with Kim Kardashian. Even Nike-owned Converse is pitching in with a much talked about (though still unreleased) sneaker with basketball star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Patience Please: Any or all of these efforts could be the next great Nike franchise, but it will take years of meticulous execution to pull off. We’ll find out Thursday if the company is confident enough in its plans to put a date on its return to form.
A Big Debut at Dior
What’s Happening: Jonathan Anderson makes his much-anticipated Dior debut with a men’s show in Paris on June 27, the first and perhaps the biggest in a series of major designer debuts slated for the coming months.
A Long Time Coming: Anderson was named creative director of Dior Men’s in April, though his long-rumoured appointment to replace Maria Grazia Chiuri wasn’t made official until earlier this month. Debuting with a men’s show, rather than couture or women’s, could be seen as a “soft launch,” though given the many months of anticipation and the stakes, his collection won’t lack for attention.
Needing a Spark: The luxury sector is mired in its worst downturn in years. LVMH’s brands, which initially defied the trend, are now struggling to keep customers engaged just like everyone else (though declines, while significant, are nowhere near the carnage at Gucci or Burberry). Creative directors can only do so much, but having the right vision and products makes the changes to supply chains and pricing architecture needed to revive the industry’s prospects go down easier.
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