The Eyelash Economy Looks to the Future

In 2015, makeup artist Gabriella Elio launched her brand Sweed Beauty with a range of false lashes. Ten years on, they only account for one percent of her business.

“Back in 2015, everyone was wearing false lashes. Not just professionals, but also normal customers,” said Elio. While the diminished share is partly thanks to Sweed’s expansion into other categories like complexion over the last decade, brand data reveals that just three years ago, false lashes still accounted for over 20 percent of sales — marking a swift and sharp decline.

Broader data tells a similar story: in the US market, the category is down 12.9 percent year-to-date, according to market research firm Spate. At European premium cosmetics retailer Lookfantastic, there’s a similar 14 percent slump. Even black mascara, a makeup staple, has slipped, with Spate reporting a near 10 percent drop in the product’s popularity.

In the UK, lash growth serums and new “skinified” formulas are the usurpers, says Angharad Bate, a Lookfantastic cosmetics buyer. “You can truly see the trend of where serums really took off at the start of this year and false lash sales went into decline,” she said, attributing the uptick to the “clean girl” trend and influencer endorsements from the likes of Molly-Mae Hague.

But in the US, lash serums aren’t booming as they once were, and sales are growing only modestly, according to Spate. Instead, growth in the region’s lash category can be found in strip lash derivatives: cluster lashes and magnetic eyelashes, which are up 62.6 percent and 37.6 percent year-on-year respectively. Lash leader Ardell once made 95 percent of its sales from strip lashes. “Now almost half of the products on the wall as well as almost half of the sales are dedicated to underlash,” said Jennifer Johnson, Ardell’s brand director.

“Consumers might still be going for fake lashes, but maybe they’re looking for a more subtle application, and a more mess-free application as well,” said Addison Cain, senior insights and marketing lead at Spate.

However, in 2024 Bate saw a similar surge in these lash derivatives — before momentum completely evaporated. “The biggest decline is coming from underlashes and individual lashes,” she said, highlighting that Kiss, one of the biggest brands for the retailer in this category, is in double digit decline year-on-year.

The ephemeral nature of certain lash trends highlights the lack of consumer loyalty in the space, but could spell opportunity for brands willing to react swiftly to trends.

The Next Lash Frontier

In a strip lash void, brands who were hoping to rely on mascara sales will be disappointed.

As mascara’s popularity wanes, interest in “no mascara” looks such as “ghost lashes” has rocketed by over 1000 percent year-on-year. While makeup aesthetics come and go, the threat to a staple like mascara can spell serious trouble — especially with no end to the clean girl aesthetic in sight.

Lash growth serums continue to rise, as brands innovate to forgo the irritating active ingredients known as prostaglandins found in market leaders like Latisse. Sweed’s lash serum gained popularity as one of the first prostaglandin-free formulas at the time of its late 2020 launch. Brands are also “skinifying” their false lash products, with Ardell introducing its Nourish collection fortified with skincare ingredients in Oct. 2025. “Skinification is expanding into all different areas — it was the right time for lashes,” Johnson added.

The trend may also be a boon for the staid mascara category. Cain says that tubing formulas, which use polymers to wrap lashes in pigment and are easily washed off, have seen a consistently healthy growth trajectory and popular offerings from Hourglass and Kulfi. Brown mascaras are also on the up, seeing a 12.6 percent increase in popularity year-on-year, and endorsements from the likes of Hailey Bieber and Kylie Jenner. Sweed has also noticed the surge, says Elio, who shared that one in four of her mascaras sales are brown — a 162 percent increase since 2023.

Further extending the shade range has become the next move for mascara makers seeking growth. “Shades like burgundy and glitter are rising,” said Cain, calling them “accent mascaras.”

The replenishment rate for colourful mascaras is much lower than their inkier peers. Brands want to change that, and are staking their growth on offering more wardrobe options.

“A trend I’ve seen into next year is really educating the customer on what the best mascara is by eye colour, which is very new.” said Bate. The goal, she continued, is getting shoppers to try all the different colours.

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