Richemont Opens Luxury’s Next Big Results Season

Welcome back to The Week Ahead. This is Mimosa Spencer, luxury editor at BoF, with an overview of what to look out for when Richemont kicks off luxury earnings.

Another earnings season is around the corner and Richemont’s quarterly sales report on Wednesday will set the tone for the industry. There will be a bit of time to scrutinize the figures, with other large luxury groups mostly squeezing in their releases at the tail end of July, just before heading off for the August recess.

Top line growth will be the focus — as always, across the sector.

Analysts have been slightly lowering their annual forecasts for the industry after a lacklustre start to the year.

Bain recently slightly trimmed its forecast for growth in personal luxury goods in 2026 to between 2 to 4 percent at constant exchange rates, down slightly from a November estimate of 3 to 5 percent.

While the forecasted growth is modest, it would signal a turnaround for an industry coming off two years of declining revenue.

Richemont, meanwhile, is in a unique position, benefitting from the dominance of its brands Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels in the realm of jewellery, a bright patch for the otherwise struggling sector.

The category has overtaken handbags as an industry growth engine, thanks to the resilience of wealthy shoppers, and the idea that it holds its value — with soaring gold prices serving to reinforce that perception.

Jewellery is also resonating particularly well with shoppers who are increasingly interested in products that enable self expression, a key motivator for making a luxury purchase, according to BoF Insights and McKinsey’s latest report “Face to Face With Luxury Clients.”

Richemont’s jewellery division is forecast to slow to 11 percent in the past three months, slowing from a faster clip of 16 percent at the start of the year, according to estimates from Vontobel, reflecting disruption to tourist flows in the Middle East and an uneven recovery in China.

Overall group sales in the US and China, where sales grew in the double digits at the start of the year, will also be in focus.

Signs from the US are positive, with the latest data from Citi showing credit card spending on luxury brands was up 3 percent in June — marking sixth months in a row of improvement. Soaring stock valuations, along with an easing of inflation in June, have boosted the industry’s biggest market and main source of growth.

Any signs of improvement in China will be closely monitored, but expectations remain muted as the effects of the property crisis continue to linger.

LVMH, Kering, Hermès and Puig all report in the last week of the month, starting on July 27.

Sales at Hermès are expected to rise to the tune of 6 percent. LVMH and Kering — where the fashion and leather goods division and the Gucci brand, respectively will be the main focus — will likely see a 2 percent increase, HSBC estimates show.

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