Will Prada’s Winning Streak Continue?

Welcome to The Week Ahead, your guide to the most important and interesting events you’ll want to know about in that first Monday morning Zoom meeting you’re surely looking forward to. I’m The Business of Fashion’s executive editor, Brian Baskin.

The big event this week is the US wide release of “The Devil Wears Prada 2.” The public has been primed by 20 years of nostalgia for the original, plus a months-long marketing campaign ranging from teaser trailers to splashy red carpet premieres to a special menu at Starbucks. Product partnerships have mostly been with mass brands — Walmart has a themed capsule, Old Navy is selling a familiar-looking cerulean cable-knit sweater, Tresemmé released a hair spray.

Luxury brands have mostly avoided explicit tie-ins like this. Instead, they’re jockeying to dress the film’s stars on magazine covers, red carpets and the press tour. And of course in the movie itself: Costume designer Molly Rogers told Vogue that, in contrast with the first film for which many luxury brands declined to work with the production, this time, she had her pick.

The Week Ahead has its own, highly unauthorised tie-in: a preview of Prada’s earnings, which come out on April 30. We’ve also got the rest of an eventful earnings week covered below.

Prada’s Non-Devil Customers

What’s happening: Prada Group, which includes its namesake label, Miu Miu, Versace and some smaller brands, releases first-quarter results on April 30. The company has reported 20 consecutive quarters of sales growth, an enviable streak for a luxury company these days.

Behind the numbers: The group’s performance is a bit of a mirage. Prada’s sales fell through most of last year before seeing a small uptick in the fourth quarter. Versace, officially part of the company as of Dec. 2, was shrinking fast prior to the acquisition. That leaves Miu Miu, where sales grew 20 percent year on year in the fourth quarter.

What’s the problem then: That sounds good until you factor in that this was the brand’s slowest rate of growth since 2022. It’s far too soon to say that Prada Group is succumbing to the luxury slump alongside the rest of the industry.

But there are some headwinds:

• The sales comparisons get much more challenging when going up against peak Miu Miu mania, which is Wall Street’s way of saying that figuring out how to double annual sales from nearly $2 billion is exponentially more challenging than when the brand was a $500 million-a-year business.
• Miu Miu’s growth got a boost from price hikes and category expansion, including fragrance in 2025. These levers are harder to pull now. Ubiquity fuels growth but risks overexposure. And many brands are discovering that it’s harder than expected to win back aspirational customers when you need them again.
• Miu Miu’s rise came amid creative and commercial stagnation at the brands that dominated luxury’s previous era. While sales haven’t yet rebounded at Dior and Gucci, the creative reset is well underway. Miu Miu doesn’t have the spotlight to itself anymore.
• Finally, Prada Group faces the same pressures as the rest of the sector: War in the Middle East has disrupted a key market, and China’s recovery remains shaky.

In conclusion: Don’t count Prada Group as a casualty of the luxury slump just yet. But when even Hermès is struggling, it will take a lot of ballet flats and aprons to defy gravity.

The Devil Wears Crocs?

What’s happening: Prada’s not the only one with earnings to watch this week.

Who’s on deck: Adidas is out on April 29. Like Prada, it’s been having a good run thanks to the Sambas craze, but consumers and investors want to know what’s coming next.

Crocs has unique exposure to the Middle East war, as its proprietary “Croslite” elastomer resin (the rubbery material it uses to make its clogs) are derived from oil. The company has long-term supply contracts, which help it weather short-term price spikes or interruptions. In its results on April 30, changes to the company’s outlook for margins, or a move to build up inventory, would be signs Crocs is concerned about long-term disruptions, however.

Last but not least, The Estée Lauder Companies is out with third-quarter earnings on Friday. The actual results will be overshadowed by the conglomerate’s proposed merger with Puig. The company, which is reportedly arranging €5 billion ($5.9 billion) in financing for the deal, may provide additional colour on the rationale behind the tie-up and what the combined companies might look like.

The Week Ahead wants to hear from you! Send tips, suggestions, complaints and compliments to brian.baskin@businessoffashion.com.