This Year’s Black Friday Paradox

Black Friday has arrived this year with consumers in a funk: Sentiment has fallen to near-record lows, and some industry observers are forecasting a decline in sales over this weekend — a four-day Super Bowl of retail — for the first time in years.

A Deloitte survey, for example, found that average spending is projected to dip by 4 percent from last year: from $650 to $622, despite higher prices thanks to tariffs and other forces behind stubborn inflation.

And yet, we might all be in for a surprise: Hard data paints a more nuanced picture. Monthly US retail sales have remained surprisingly resilient, and many big-name retailers have delivered upbeat earnings results heading into the holidays. Kohl’s, for instance, outperformed expectations, and Abercrombie & Fitch posted another strong quarter, particularly at its teen favourite Hollister brand. Gap Inc. has continued its upward trajectory, delivering another quarter of positive growth and raising its full-year outlook last week. Off-price giant TJX, of course, remains at the top of the pack, as the value proposition of famous brands at a bargain is particularly attractive in an inflationary environment.

Even as shoppers say they’re worried, they’re still showing up for the right product, the right brand story and the right price.

The seeming contradiction between what consumers say they feel and how they’re spending has another, more troubling explanation, however.

Higher-income households — supported by strong equity markets, high wage growth post-pandemic and healthier savings cushions — are continuing to spend across categories including travel, apparel and gifting. The top 10 percent of US households account for almost half of all spending in the US, according to a report from Moody’s Analytics earlier this year. Their purchasing power is helping prop up overall retail numbers.

Lower-income consumers, on the other hand, are experiencing a very different season. Tariffs and elevated prices have intensified the pressure on essentials, leaving less room for discretionary categories. These households are trading down, prioritising necessities, and relying more heavily on promotional periods like Black Friday to stretch their budgets.

In this “K-shaped” economy, the upper 10 percent drive the buoyant spending data, the other 90 percent are behind the dismal sentiment readings.

But regardless of where they sit on the spectrum of wealth, consumers heading into 2026 have one thing in common: Everyone is looking for value, not necessarily in the form of discounts but rather quality in relation to a fair price.

Winning the season isn’t about blanket promotions or creating scarcity for hot items. It’s about having sharp pricing and merchandising strategies that align, alongside brand narratives that help the customer understand why something costs what it costs.

In a year defined by low sentiment and high selectiveness, the brands that will outperform are the ones that make their value proposition unmistakably clear. It’s no wonder, then, that TJ Maxx doesn’t offer Black Friday deals; it simply doesn’t have to.